The goal of this project is to improve the quality of decisions under uncertainty. Because very few decisions by the intelligence community are ever made under complete certainty, the quality of the complex decisions analysts make depends critically on their ability to incorporate significant, task-relevant uncertainties. The abstractness, complexity, and volume of real-world information can overwhelm analysts. Consequently, various tools for visualizing intelligence information have been developed that significantly improve the analysis of complex intelligence. Though examination of uncertainty is critical, it is most important when judgment is difficult or contentious, when adequate multi-source perspectives do not back up data, or when information is subject to potential deception. Despite this, current visualization methods and tools do not help the analyst consider or take successful advantage of explicit or tacit knowledge about information uncertainty. To overcome this, we are developing novel methods for depicting the degree of uncertainty and its influence and for supporting the manipulation of these factors by the analyst in order to strengthen analytical reasoning.

This material is based upon work supported by the Geo-Spatial Intelligence Information Visualization Program (GI2Vis) BAA Number: NMA401-02-BAA-0005.

Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of ARDA.
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